By Dr. Matthew Frear
Russia’s
intervention in Ukraine has often been justified in terms of defending the
interests of ethnic Russians. According to the 2009 national census, almost 800,000 Russians live in
Belarus – 8.3% of the population. As the titular nationality, Belarusians are
actually in quite a strong position – ethnic Belarusians make up a larger
proportion of the population of Belarus than Ukrainians do in Ukraine or
Russians do in the Russian Federation.
There are
less Russians in Belarus than Ukraine as a proportion of population, but more
Russian speakers. Based on the 2009 census again, Russian is the mother tongue
of 41.5% of the population, but the language of convenience commonly used at
home for 70% of the population. Russian is already an official language
alongside Belarusian however, and it would be difficult to claim that rights of
Russian speakers are being suppressed.
Unlike
Ukraine there is no particular concentration of ethnic Russians or Russian
speakers in one part of the country. Instead these communities are fairly
evenly spread across the entire country so there is no realistic secessionist
movement which could be nurtured by Moscow.
Moscow
has also invoked the idea of correcting the historical mistakes of the past
which granted Russian lands, such as Crimea, to Ukraine by mistake. During the
interwar years Belarusian territory was partitioned between Poland and the
USSR, which opted to create a Belarusian Soviet Socialist Republic as a buffer
republic rather than incorporate the whole of eastern Belarus into the Russian
Soviet Federative Socialist Republic. Conceivably the Kremlin might try to make
the case that Belarus as a whole was an artificial Soviet construct which
should never have existed.
If Russia
sought to imitate a Crimean ‘reunification’ scenario in Belarus, it would
probably have to be an all or nothing affair, from the perspective of either
the land or the people. Would any of the Belarusian population welcome it
though?
The will
of the Crimean people as reflected by plebiscite has been touted as driver for
the peninsula’s incorporation into the Russian Federation. The latest
independent IISEPS opinion polling in Belarus shows
an increase
in public support for
hypothetical reunification with the Russian Federation in the aftermath of
events in Ukraine. In March 2014, 29% of respondents polled said they would
vote yes in a referendum on reunification with Russia.
Belarus
is a much smaller country than Ukraine so regional differences are far less
emphatic and politicians in the regions are far weaker in Lukashenka’s highly
centralised system. There is little in the form of a regional constituency to
appeal to, and oblast governors are appointed by the centre. If Russia
were to somehow make them an offer they could not refuse, it could not be ruled
out that both local politicians and indeed citizens might be wooed by Moscow to
oppose Minsk.
Neither
the elites not the public are voraciously anti-Russian, but nor are they
clamouring for unification with Russia either. Lukashenka has encouraged
patriotism towards an independent state and has increasingly portrayed himself
as a defender of Belarusian sovereignty, against threats from both Russia and
the West. The ethno-cultural nationalism espoused by elements of the opposition
is still denigrated by the regime however, usually invoking the ever-popular
spectre of fascism or western-back fifth columnists.
The
circumstances in Belarus are very different to the situation faced by Ukraine
over recent months. Belarus remains firmly within Russia’s self-proclaimed
sphere of privileged interest. There is no interest in NATO membership and
closer integration with the EU is precluded by the lack of progress on
democratisation in Belarus under Lukashenka. The country already participates
in the Russia-led Collective Security Treaty Organisation and is a founding
member of the Customs Union and Single Economic Space in the latest wave of
Eurasian integration. It would appear that Moscow would have no need for a
repeat of the Ukraine scenario in Belarus to secure its interests and influence
there.
Nevertheless,
Putin’s adventure in Ukraine has worried many in Minsk. Belarus may at first glance
appear to be a loyal, reliable ally of Moscow, but there have been a number of
oil and gas disputes, trade wars and periods of personal animosity during the
past decade which means that is not impossible that there could come a point
when Russia might decide it needs to tighten the screws on a recalcitrant Minsk
in order to reinforce its leverage in the country.
Under what
circumstances might Moscow take a more aggressive stance towards Belarus? One
scenario might be if Russia were to continue down the path of dismembering
Ukraine. If at some point in the future eastern and southern Ukraine, and
possibly Transnistria as well, had been incorporated into the Russian
Federation, there might be a momentum to unite all the perceived Russian lands
– including Belarus. Alternatively, the threat of potential action might become
a tool in the forthcoming presidential elections in Belarus, scheduled for
2015. Support for a hypothetical pro-Western candidate could be tempered for
fear of a Russian response. The Kremlin might make it known that it supports a
particular candidate to rival Lukashenka, who has always been a troublesome
ally. Finally, Moscow might step in to take advantage of any power vacuum. This
could be the sudden illness or death of Lukashenka, or an unexpected popular
revolt by the people along the lines of the Euromaidan.
In the
short term, the treatment of the Russian and Russian speaking population, the
historic borders of Belarus, and the geopolitical orientation of Minsk are
unlikely to incite an aggressive response from Moscow. Belarus is a less
fertile ground for nurturing grievances than Ukraine. Nevertheless the
potential threat Russia could pose is still likely to hang over domestic
politics in the coming months leading up to the 2015 elections in Belarus and
Lukashenka will be warily observing Putin’s actions in Ukraine.
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